Labour is heading for victory in Filton and Bradley Stoke, according to a huge YouGov survey of more than 60,000 people across the UK.
Current MP Jack Lopresti is forecast to secure 28.9% of the vote, trailing Labour’s Claire Hazelgrove who is estimated to win 50.7% of voters’ preferences.
The first major YouGov poll ahead of the 2024 General Election suggests a massive national landslide victory for Labour, with the party winning a 194-seat majority, even bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997.
It gives Labour 422 MPs, the Tories reduced to just 140 and the Lib Dems with 48.
Across the Bristol area, Labour’s Dan Norris is set to unseat longtime Tory foe Jacob Rees-Mogg at the General Election, while the Greens are likely to take Bristol Central, a mega-poll reveals.
A resurgent Liberal Democrats are also predicted to make big gains, with South Gloucestershire Council leader Cllr Claire Young tipped to take Thornbury & Yate from Conservative MP Luke Hall, although all three battlegrounds should be very close.
In the South West, Labour would become the biggest party with 24 seats, up from seven, the Conservatives suffering heavy losses and dropping from 52 to 20 and the Lib Dems making a comeback with 14, having taken zero in the region in 2019.
Ex-cabinet member Jacob Rees-Mogg is projected to lose his seat to current West of England metro mayor Dan Norris in the newly created North East Somerset & Hanham constituency in a rematch 14 years after the Tory ousted the former Labour government minister.
YouGov has the seat narrowly in Labour’s favour, what it calls a “lean”.
It predicts Green national party co-leader Carla Denyer is “likely” to become only the second MP for the party in Bristol Central, beating Labour shadow secretary for culture, media and sport Thangam Debbonaire into second place.
The pollsters class Thornbury & Yate as a “lean” towards the Lib Dems from the Tories, while Labour’s Filton & Bradley Stoke candidate Claire Hazelgrove has a more comfortable predicted lead over Conservative incumbent Jack Lopresti and is “likely” to win.
The YouGov poll is based on the voting intentions of nearly 60,000 voters and uses a technique known as MRP which is regarded as one of the most accurate forms of election forecasting.
Details of every constituency can be found here: https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024